Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.177377 2.297102 2.426154 2.576802 2.749446 2.943189 3.180156
2025-06-22 1.994180 2.138827 2.300774 2.498339 2.737044 3.022210 3.399072
2025-06-29 1.903597 2.067561 2.256639 2.495699 2.797840 3.179767 3.724078
2025-07-06 1.807456 1.979232 2.181201 2.442823 2.784116 3.233901 3.914242
2025-07-13 1.770032 1.956239 2.180100 2.478459 2.882966 3.445135 4.367358
2025-07-20 1.752747 1.955096 2.203899 2.545493 3.028351 3.741418 5.035852
2025-07-27 1.711501 1.920923 2.182378 2.548819 3.082565 3.907797 5.536417
2025-08-03 1.675222 1.890574 2.163140 2.552430 3.135682 4.079037 6.114199
2025-08-10 1.616114 1.828187 2.098197 2.487038 3.077013 4.051276 6.247055
2025-08-17 1.579959 1.793850 2.068695 2.469684 3.090467 4.151117 6.729828
2025-08-24 1.547979 1.763535 2.042914 2.455565 3.106921 4.258140 7.293755
2025-08-31 1.520106 1.737447 2.021491 2.446100 3.129386 4.379747 7.988627
2025-09-07 1.502402 1.725177 2.019788 2.467907 3.209886 4.642304 9.476956
2025-09-14 1.454566 1.671112 1.957865 2.394891 3.120878 4.531319 9.388691
2025-09-21 1.432396 1.650758 1.942238 2.391794 3.153752 4.693887 10.770286
2025-09-28 1.397074 1.611623 1.898736 2.343236 3.101507 4.654331 11.088807
2025-10-05 1.389108 1.609191 1.906942 2.375609 3.198410 4.987650 14.625273
2025-10-12 1.389977 1.618659 1.932311 2.436569 3.356025 5.532083 25.890337
2025-10-19 1.374009 1.604331 1.922455 2.439559 3.401692 5.790905 44.958279
2025-10-26 1.358967 1.590807 1.913188 2.442824 3.448136 6.071711 307.387820
2025-11-02 1.327399 1.553483 1.867663 2.383307 3.360205 5.897362 180.633137
2025-11-09 1.309012 1.534247 1.848484 2.367482 3.362560 6.027687 NaN
2025-11-16 1.292231 1.516869 1.831533 2.354599 3.369971 6.180183 NaN